Chernobyl Accident: the Crisis of the International Radiation Community

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Mikhail V. Malko

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Institute of Physical and Chemical Radiation Problems of the Academy of Sciences of Belarus

Minsk, Sosny, 220109, Republic of Belarus; fax: +375 (0172) 467317


http://www.rri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/NSRG/reports/1998/kr-21/Malko96-1.html

Table 1 Number of thyroid cancer of children and adults in Belarus [10].

Pre-accident period

Post-accident period

Years

Adults

Children

Years

Adults

Children

1977

121

2

1986

162

2

1978

97

2

1987

202

4

1979

101

0

1988

207

5

1980

127

0

1989

226

7

1981

132

1

1990

289

29

1982

131

1

1991

340

59

1983

136

0

1992

416

66

1984

139

0

1993

512

79

1985

148

1

1994

553

82

Total

1131

7

Total

2907

333

The total number of children's thyroid cancers established in Belarus in 1986-1995, which is the first 10 years after the Chernobyl accident, reached 424 cases [11]. It exceeded 10 times the total number of children's thyroid cancers predicted by authors [9] for the 35-year period after the accident. As can be seen from the comparison of predicted and real data, the prognoses of the Soviet specialists [1,9] had underestimated to a great extent the children's thyroid cancer resulting from the Chernobyl accident. The same may be concluded in regard of the hereditary malformations in the contaminated areas of the former USSR. Predictions [1,9] excluded practically even the possibility of such effects being established. The incorrectness of this conclusion was shown by Prof. G.Lazjuk and his colleagues [6,7].